Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 0.277704 0.320836 0.367811 0.422685 0.484939 0.553280 0.633895
2025-07-06 0.204934 0.258599 0.321752 0.401245 0.498300 0.612585 0.756973
2025-07-13 0.164560 0.225384 0.302256 0.405819 0.540866 0.710072 0.937074
2025-07-20 0.129431 0.192144 0.277117 0.399334 0.569009 0.794371 1.114069
2025-07-27 0.105548 0.169392 0.261871 0.403399 0.611759 0.903868 1.340031
2025-08-03 0.087288 0.151129 0.249764 0.409926 0.659151 1.026638 1.601988
2025-08-10 0.067652 0.126615 0.223893 0.391559 0.667252 1.094493 1.795101
2025-08-17 0.051565 0.104369 0.197383 0.367415 0.662455 1.142186 1.964556
2025-08-24 0.041330 0.090153 0.181658 0.358414 0.680819 1.228707 2.206679
2025-08-31 0.033259 0.078110 0.167431 0.349438 0.697699 1.314900 2.459463
2025-09-07 0.028397 0.071431 0.162069 0.355999 0.743508 1.456636 2.824878
2025-09-14 0.022527 0.060994 0.146985 0.340677 0.745613 1.520470 3.060139
2025-09-21 0.018111 0.052904 0.135563 0.331696 0.760765 1.614306 3.370068
2025-09-28 0.014446 0.045574 0.124189 0.320638 0.770051 1.698661 3.674195
2025-10-05 0.012518 0.042298 0.121691 0.329296 0.823049 1.877257 4.185645
2025-10-12 0.010441 0.037919 0.115420 0.327800 0.853417 2.013684 4.629559
2025-10-19 0.009025 0.035085 0.112558 0.334285 0.903484 2.198784 5.197587
2025-10-26 0.007873 0.032709 0.110409 0.342265 0.958615 2.402288 5.829308
2025-11-02 0.006295 0.028232 0.100981 0.328572 0.957788 2.479872 6.194912
2025-11-09 0.004899 0.023815 0.090469 0.309406 0.939486 2.514399 6.467967
2025-11-16 0.004032 0.021102 0.084659 0.302789 0.953464 2.627824 6.936690
2025-11-23 0.003317 0.018693 0.079171 0.295923 0.965594 2.738311 7.411389
2025-11-30 0.002918 0.017543 0.077859 0.302224 1.016487 2.953175 8.163302